This week London Marathon announced they’ve again beaten the records as a stonking 457,861 applicants registered for a ballot place in the 2020 event, the 40th edition of the race. This is up 10% from the previous year, already an impressive figure.
How’s it work?
The ballot system up to 2016 closed after 125,000 applicants. This meant if you were keen you’d set your alarm for an ungodly hour of the morning to get up and get in. It also opened typically a week after the event so those whose enthusiasm from watching it on the telly was short lived would typically have moved onto another interest before the entry opened. A benefit to ‘serious’ runners but also decreasing the chances of a non-runner accidentally getting a life changing experience.
For the ballot for 2016 race onward it’s been open for five days, and was increased to six days for 2020 entry where for the first time it was open during the marathon itself so anyone inspired and watching from the safety of their sofa could enter immediately before the elite runners had even finished the course. The changes give everyone a chance to apply but also means a far higher number fighting for the same number of places. For the 2016 marathon 247,069 applied, for 2017 it was 253,930, and for 2020 is now 457,861.
What’s the odds?
The organisers are a little cagey on how many ballot spots are available but general consensus is around 17,000. This sounds a lot but equates to less than 4% chance of getting lucky under the new system, or 13% under the old.
Coincidentally prior to the 2018 Fifa World Cup, sports data company Gracenote gave England a 4% chance of lifting the trophy in Moscow and remember how excited we all got about that?
It’s still better odds than the lottery and you don’t have to pay until you get lucky so also cheaper.
|Probability of success||13.60%||4.40%||4.10%||3.71%|
“It’s not fair! I wanna cry!”
Every year when the figures are announced people complain, and every October or November when the ballot results are announced yet more complain. The numbers running creep slowly up every year, but the reality is London Marathon have an impossible task trying to stage a manageable and safe race and keep all applicants happy.
They recently changed the Good For Age times to streamline numbers and bring some parity with the rest of the majors. They adjusted the number of places offered to running clubs to increase ballot spots. Each year they’ve offered slightly more places than previous. Even with these steps they’d need to hold an event with nearly half a million runners to satisfy the demand. Given 40,000 runners close down London for 8 hours, that increase would be some undertaking and they might struggle for volunteers willing to undertake a 80 hour shift.
The makeup of the entry field is also something VMLM seldom list in detail but appears to be around 15,000 charity, 6000 Good For Age (those runners fast enough in the age and sex category to gain a spot), 1000 Championship (even faster than Good For Age), 1000 for affiliated running clubs, 100 Elite and 100 Celebrity spots. It’s unclear how many places are available for the overseas ballot, and how many defer from previous years but you can assume deferrals are relatively consistent year on year.
What’s surprising is quite how many do drop out. The press pack helpfully lists starters and finishers for every year it’s been held. For the years 2006-2019 they’ve accepted between 48,0000 and 56,000 runners but never had more than 42,000 make the start line. The average dropout rate is 25% before the race has even begun. If you’re one of the many runners having been unsuccessful on the ballot for multiple years it could be quite disappointing to know that a quarter of those that get a spot never even make it to pick up their race pack from the exhibition hall whilst you’d have gladly sold a close family member or at least a distant aunt to run the marathon.In total all these add up to 50,000 places, far more than ever make the start line and VMLM themselves advise “We accept a total of more than 50,000 runners as we can predict, after 36 years, almost exactly what proportion of entrants will drop out due to illness, injury or other reasons before Race Day.”
In the unlikely event all 50,000-56,000 ever turned up there would be a lot of issues with crowd control and course congestion, not to mention at the finish as VMLM advise on their press pack they only have around 45,000 goody bags and medals – a lot of disappointed runners.
|Year||Total Ballot Applicants||Accepted Runners||Starters||% Drop Out||Total Finishers||% Drop Out|
Of course if you don’t get in for a number of years and don’t donate the entry fee, then after 6-7 years of rejection you’re some of the way to ‘buying’ a spot from a charity and raising money for a cause that means something to you.